TL;DR: AI bubble fears, debt-heavy funding and the rise of the Global South
If you only looked at US mega-cap charts, you would think the story is “AI boom forever”. Step back, and a different picture shows up. One of the loudest macro voices is calling a bubble; emerging markets are attracting significant growth capital, and in MENA, most startup funding in October came as debt, not equity.
For operators, that combination matters more than the headlines. It tells you where risk is being priced, who still has a balance sheet, and which regions are being treated as future engines rather than frontier experiments.
Global economic and founder themes
AI bubble concern
Why it matters: If AI is in bubble territory, late-cycle capital can snap back just as founders ramp up spend on data centers, infra and hard tech.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio says his bubble indicators are flashing again, with equity-wealth-to-money ratios at levels similar to 1929 and 2000.
He is telling investors to think in decades, not quarters: expect low real returns, watch leverage, and study how past bubbles unwind rather than assuming “this time is different”.
In parallel, economists are warning that AI-themed borrowing and capex are now at record highs, with systemic risk if returns do not materialise.
Emerging markets growth
Why it matters: If the next leg of real growth comes from Asia, Africa and the Middle East, founders in those markets can build “home first” and still be building for global scale.
Multilaterals now see developing Asia and wider emerging markets outpacing the global average, driven by tech exports, infrastructure, and domestic demand.
Investors are leaning into Asia, Africa and MENA as the next frontier, helped by:
Financial innovation and better local capital markets.
Digitised supply chains and logistics.
Big upgrades in roads, ports, power and fibre.
The bet: growth comes from building rails and infra in these regions, not only from selling software into the US and Europe.
Also read: The Invisible Upgrade - The $17M Infrastructure Bet Behind Your New Phone
Bridging VC gaps: Propeller’s US–MENA AI fund
Why it matters: A dedicated cross-border AI fund tightens the loop between MENA technical talent and US buyers with the biggest AI budgets.
Jordan-rooted VC Propeller has launched a $50 million Fund III focused on early-stage AI infrastructure and AI-native software.
The firm is headquartered across Amman, Riyadh, Boston and Silicon Valley, and has already backed US-facing AI infra startups in 2025.
Thesis: MENA founders should be building globally from day one, selling into the US while plugging US AI companies into Gulf-scale infra projects.
India and US Tech / Business Highlights
Skydo’s US expansion
Why it matters: Cross-border fintechs like Skydo turn India from “payments back office” into a revenue engine, anchored on US SMB demand.
Bengaluru-based cross-border payments fintech Skydo raised a $10 million Series A, led by Susquehanna Asia Venture Capital with existing backers Elevation Capital and Eximius.
Skydo is now:
Expanding into the US SMB market.
Building inward collection capabilities across 20+ countries, especially Africa and the Middle East.
Startup IPO momentum: Meesho and Wakefit
Why it matters: A live tech IPO window in India gives growth startups domestic exits and signals that local public markets will price consumer and internet risk.
Meesho listed today valuation is roughly a 46–60% premium to its IPO price, landing the company at about $8.8 billion after raising about $600 million.
Home and sleep brand Wakefit is closing its book-build (Dec 8–10) for a ₹1,288.89 crore IPO, with softer subscription and a low single-digit grey-market premium.
Read-through: investor appetite is there, but pricing is selective; not every consumer or D2C name will clear at peak multiples.
Also Read: UAE’s ruya becomes first Islamic bank to offer in-app Bitcoin trading
Retail and AI in the US: Walmart x OpenAI
Why it matters: When the world’s largest retailer ships AI-first commerce, it resets the benchmark for every marketplace and grocery app.
Walmart has partnered with OpenAI to enable customers to shop directly on Walmart within ChatGPT through Instant Checkout.
The goal is to move from reactive search to proactive, assistant-led shopping that can:
Plan meals.
Restock essentials.
Suggest new products and complete the order inside the chat experience.
Middle East startup and tech focus
The Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is using large balance sheets to buy future growth in deep tech, property tech and advanced services.
Property and regulation tech
Why it matters: Housing and licensing are hard constraints for giga-projects and SME formation; software that unblocks them gets both policy and revenue tailwinds.
Mnzil (Riyadh-based proptech) raised $11.7 million Series A, led by Founders Fund in its first lead investment in Saudi Arabia, to scale tech-enabled workforce housing.
Saudi regtech STAMP secured $2 million pre-seed to unify licensing, incorporation and compliance for Saudi authorities in one AI-powered interface.
Also Read: IBM bets $11 billion that real-time data will decide the AI race
Deep tech and AI
Why it matters: The region is not just buying AI tools; it is funding the hardware and infra layer that could become globally critical.
XPANCEO (Dubai) raised $250 million Series A at a $1.35 billion valuation, becoming the UAE’s 12th unicorn with an AI-powered smart contact lens that aims to replace multiple personal devices.
Strataphy (Saudi deep tech) raised a $6 million seed to deploy geothermal cooling systems for data centers, giga-projects and cities across MENA, directly attacking AI’s energy and heat problem.
WeRide and Uber launched the Middle East’s first fully driverless robotaxi commercial operations on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, with passengers booking WeRide robotaxis through Uber.
Finance and debt
Why it matters: A funding mix dominated by debt forces founders toward cash-flow discipline and asset-backed models, and narrows the runway for pure burn.
MENA startup funding in October 2025 fell to around $785 million, down 77% from September’s peak.
72% of that October capital came as debt, concentrated in four big deals, with only $217 million in equity and other instruments.
Takeaway: capital remains, but much more of it now behaves like bank money, not “free VC”.
Robotics
Why it matters: A 10,000-unit pre-order for a humanoid robot signals that robotics is moving from PR showcases to planned operational deployment.
A new partnership has opened the Middle East’s first dedicated humanoid robotics showroom in Riyadh.
The deal includes a pre-order for up to 10,000 humanoid robots over five years, with local assembly in Saudi Arabia.
For operators, this is a signal to begin stress-testing, with human-heavy workflows redesigned around robot fleets.
Africa and global positioning
Growing opportunities
Why it matters: As AI and the energy transition reshape supply chains, Africa’s minerals, demographics and infrastructure upgrades make it central to long-term strategy.
Investors are reframing Africa as a core opportunity, driven by:
Better roads, ports, power and telecoms.
A fast-growing middle class.
Critical minerals and energy assets needed for batteries, grids and renewables.
For founders, this means more demand for both infra software and consumer platforms tied to logistics, payments and mobility.
Regional investment
Why it matters: Local capital backing local super-app plays is a sign African markets will produce their own platforms, not just host foreign ones.
Morocco’s Done.ma raised $2.1 million seed from local and angel investors to build a homegrown super app, expanding beyond quick commerce into broader services.
It is one of the larger early-stage rounds led exclusively by Moroccan capital, showing rising confidence in domestic consumer tech.
Economic outlook
Middle East
Why it matters: For founders, the real signal is non-oil growth, because that is what funds software, infra and services budgets.
The World Bank expects regional GDP for the broader MENA region (including Afghanistan and Pakistan) to grow 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, up from 2.3% in 2024, with GCC economies doing most of the lifting.
Multiple forecasters see the UAE as the Gulf’s growth engine, with GDP forecast to grow around 5.6% in 2026, driven by non-oil sectors such as tourism, trade, logistics, financial services, and real estate.
Saudi Arabia continues to post strong GDP growth but is projected to run a widening fiscal deficit through 2026 as large-scale investment programmes outpace oil revenues.
India
Why it matters: Sustained 6–7% growth makes India one of the few big economies where domestic demand, infra capex and tech exports can all grow at once.
Deloitte India projects GDP growth of 6.7–6.9% for FY 2025–26, averaging 6.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast.
Drivers:
Strong domestic demand and a growing middle class.
Heavy government capital expenditure.
Policy reforms around tax and trade that support investment.
For founders and operators, that underpins the case for India as a long-duration growth market, not just a short-term “hot” geography.
Conclusion: Bubble noise, build signal
Strip away the noise, and the pattern is clear: capital has not disappeared; it has moved, and it comes with more conditions.
At the top, AI multiples look bubbly and will snap back at some point.
Underneath, India, the Gulf and parts of Africa are quietly in build mode on infra, energy, housing, payments and logistics.
The stack is more debt-heavy and more cross-border by default.
If you are a founder, the game is to live in that second layer: solve hard, local problems, wire into global markets, and plan as if your next round will look more like a bank meeting than a hype cycle victory lap.